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Optimal Distribution-Free Prediction Intervals

§ Problem Statement

§ Discussion

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§ Significance & Implications

§ Known Partial Results

§ References

[1]

Distribution-free prediction bands for non-parametric regression

Jing Lei, Larry Wasserman (2014)

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B

📍 Section 5 (Discussion), paragraph beginning “Many open questions remain … how can we efficiently compute predictive intervals for this problem?”, p. 17 (arXiv:1903.04684v2).

[2]

The limits of distribution-free conditional predictive inference

Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel Candès, Aaditya Ramdas, Ryan Tibshirani (2021)

Information and Inference

[3]

Conformalized Quantile Regression

Yaniv Romano, Evan Patterson, Emmanuel Candès (2019)

NeurIPS

📍 Section 3 (Method), Theorem 1 (distribution-free coverage guarantee for conformalized quantile regression), p. 4.

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